The economist argues that the impact of Donald Trump's
strategy toward Iran goes beyond the military sphere and has implications for
the dollar, markets, and the international geopolitical balance.
Donald Trump's strategy toward Iran could be generating an
effect that, according to economist Daniel Lacalle, has received less attention
than the military operations and tensions in the Middle East.
Lacalle has focused on one of the economic aspects stemming
from the crisis: in times of uncertainty and international tension, the dollar
can regain appeal as a safe-haven asset, as investors seek to place their
resources in markets considered relatively secure.
In recent analyses of the conflict, the economist has
pointed out that the demand for dollars increases in scenarios of insecurity.
This dynamic can become a favorable factor for the United States, particularly
as Washington seeks to preserve the international standing of its currency.
The confrontation with Iran also has an energy dimension.
Any escalation that threatens oil supplies or strategic shipping routes in the
Persian Gulf can trigger movements in international hydrocarbon prices and
impact inflation, stock markets, and central bank decisions.
For Lacalle, therefore, the impact of Trump's policies
should not be measured solely by immediate results on the ground. It is also
necessary to consider what happens to the dollar, capital flows, and the United
States' financial position relative to its international competitors.
The tension with Iran is also unfolding against a backdrop
of increasing competition between the United States, China, and other actors
seeking to reduce their dependence on the Washington-dominated financial
system. Market behavior during crises can, however, temporarily reinforce the
dollar's role as the reserve currency.