Mexico Increases Debt in 2026: Warning Signs for Public Finances
E. ESGLOTAC
The start of 2026 has been marked by a decision that sets the country's financial course: Mexico issued $9 billion in international debt, thus inaugurating the financial market for the year in Latin America. Beyond its technical significance, this operation represents a further step in deepening public debt, in a context where national finances are already facing increasing pressure.
This issuance is not an isolated event. Last December,
Congress authorized the government of President Claudia Sheinbaum Pardo to set
a debt ceiling of up to 1.78 trillion pesos for the 2026 fiscal year. This
figure confirms that the Mexican State will once again resort to credit as one
of its main sources of financing, shifting a significant portion of the cost of
public spending onto future generations.
Although the Ministry of Finance has indicated that the debt
policy for 2026 will be geared toward a supposed fiscal consolidation, in
practice the numbers reflect a different reality: the country will continue to
accumulate financial obligations that will have to be paid with higher taxes,
spending cuts, or more debt in the future. Even if some of these resources are
used to refinance existing liabilities, the increase in total debt increases
the structural burden on the federal budget.
A particularly worrying aspect is the impact of debt
service. As the total amount grows, so do the public resources that must be allocated
to interest payments, reducing the margin for investment in health, education,
infrastructure, or social development. In effect, a growing portion of the
budget is not used to improve the population's living conditions, but rather to
meet financial obligations.
For calculating financing needs in 2026, the Federal
Government has considered an exchange rate of 18.9 pesos per dollar and has
excluded the renewal of short-term instruments. However, this planning depends
on assumptions that could be altered by international volatility. Any currency
depreciation or increase in interest rates would immediately raise the real
cost of debt, especially debt contracted in foreign currency.
The consequences of this path are clear: less fiscal
sovereignty, greater budgetary rigidity, and a growing dependence on
international financial markets. Instead of structurally reducing the deficit
and unproductive spending, the State is once again opting for borrowing as a
recurring solution, postponing difficult but necessary decisions.
In summary, the start of the 2026 financial year not only
inaugurates the debt issuance calendar in the region, but also reinforces a
worrying trend in Mexico: the normalization of indebtedness as a permanent
mechanism for public financing, with economic and social costs that will not be
felt immediately, but that will weigh more and more heavily on the country's
future.