The 2026 Economic Package presented by the Ministry of
Finance and Public Credit (SHCP) proposes a scenario of increased tax burden
for Mexican taxpayers, accompanied by an unprecedented increase in tax support
for Petróleos Mexicanos (Pemex).
According to official projections, each citizen will pay an
average of 2,023 pesos more in taxes compared to 2025, an annual increase of
4.9%. In total, tax collection would amount to 5.8 trillion pesos, a figure
that represents a 6.5% increase—equivalent to an additional 358 billion
pesos—compared to the amount approved for the previous fiscal year.
This increase will translate into a tax burden equivalent to
15.1% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), a historic high driven by increased
oversight, updated taxes, and the implementation of new tariffs. However, the
increase in public revenue will not be directly reflected in a strengthening of
national finances.
For the first time, Pemex will cease to be a net contributor
to the treasury and will become a recipient of public funds: the federal
government will allocate approximately 1,960 pesos per person in support and
tax relief to sustain the state-owned company. In practical terms, taxpayers
will assume a greater tax burden while the government redirects a significant
portion of these resources to bailout the oil sector, creating a bleak outlook
for fiscal sustainability.
At the same time, revenue from employee-employer
contributions to the Mexican Social Security Institute (IMSS) will reach 774
billion pesos, an increase of 9% (64 billion pesos) compared to 2025. This
means that workers and employers will pay an average of 34,216 pesos for their
social security contributions, or 2,585 pesos more than the previous year. If
these projections come true, social security contributions would represent 2%
of GDP, a proportion not seen since 2016.
If taxes and social security contributions are considered
together, the country's total tax burden will rise to 17.1% of GDP, the highest
in Mexico's modern history. However, this figure is still below the regional
average for Latin America (21.3%) and far from the 33.9% average for OECD
member countries.
The main reason behind this gap lies in a persistent
structural problem: high labor informality and a limited taxpayer base. Despite
recent efforts to modernize oversight and expand revenue collection, the
Mexican tax system continues to rely on a small proportion of the economically
active population, which restricts its ability to generate sustainable revenue
without increasing pressure on formal taxpayers.
In short, the 2026 Economic Package marks a turning point in
Mexican fiscal policy: record revenue collection driven by citizens, but a
growing dependence on a deficit-ridden energy sector, raising questions about
the viability of maintaining this model in the medium term./E. ESGLOTAC