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| KSAT |
The killing of Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes, identified as the
leader of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG), represents a high-impact
event in Mexico's security dynamics. Considered a key player in the territorial
and operational expansion of organized crime over the last decade, his death
has not only symbolic but also strategic implications for the balance of
criminal power.
Various analyses of criminal organizations in Mexico
maintain that the neutralization of leaders does not necessarily imply the
structural weakening of criminal groups (InSight Crime, 2023). On the contrary,
in numerous historical precedents, fragmentation or internal realignments have
led to temporary increases in violence due to disputes over territorial control
and illicit trafficking routes. This phenomenon has been described as
"succession violence," in which internal factions seek to consolidate
legitimacy through displays of force.
On an operational level, the immediate response following
the fall of a leader typically includes road blockades, attacks on strategic
infrastructure, and actions designed to generate media and political pressure.
According to previous reports from the Mexican Ministry of National Defense
(SEDENA, 2022), these types of reactions are part of intimidation strategies
directed at both the state and the civilian population. These actions seek to
project operational capacity even in contexts of organizational vulnerability.
Internationally, Oseguera Cervantes had been identified by
the U.S. Department of State (2023) as a primary target in bilateral
cooperation against drug trafficking. Therefore, his death also has diplomatic
repercussions and reinforces the narrative of security coordination between
Mexico and the United States. However, the specialized literature warns that
tactical strikes must be accompanied by sustained policies of institutional
strengthening to prevent recurring cycles of violence (Astorga, 2015).
From a structural perspective, the real challenge lies in
preventing the power vacuum from leading to internal disputes or the expansion
of other criminal groups. Comparative experience in Mexico demonstrates that
stability following the fall of a leader depends on the state's capacity to
maintain a territorial presence, strengthen local police forces, and guarantee
effective judicial processes (Flores Pérez, 2019).
In short, the death of Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes
constitutes a turning point in Mexican security policy. However, its
medium-term effects will depend less on the symbolic impact of the event and
more on the institutional capacity to contain violent reactions, prevent
fragmentation, and consolidate the rule of law./E. Esglotac